The benchmark 62% Fe fines spot price, c.f.r. China, has held an unusually tight band all year. We track it monthly for our mining and resources clients, alongside every published forecast we can source, so board packs and impairment models start from the same number.
Monthly averages of the 62% Fe fines spot assessment, c.f.r. China, in US dollars per dry metric tonne. Every month of the past year settled between $98 and $109 — a narrow band by this commodity's standards.
Solid bars are actual monthly high–low with the annual average marked. Dashed bars are the spread of published forecasts for that year with the mean marked, and the figure above each bar is that mean. Comparable c.f.r. China views only.
12 c.f.r. China views for calendar 2026, spanning $85 to $100. The consensus figure is highlighted. Hover any row for the date it was published and the reasoning behind it.
Monthly average, USD/dmt.
| Month | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 99.70 | |
| Sep 25 | 103.30 | +3.60 |
| Oct 25 | 103.50 | +0.20 |
| Nov 25 | 102.50 | -1.00 |
| Dec 25 | 104.60 | +2.10 |
| Jan 26 | 105.50 | +0.90 |
| Feb 26 | 98.80 | -6.70 |
| Mar 26 | 104.50 | +5.70 |
| Apr 26 | 106.10 | +1.60 |
| May 26 | 108.60 | +2.50 |
| Jun 26 | 100.80 | -7.80 |
| Jul 26 | 98.20 | -2.60 |
The direction of travel is down across almost every source.
New supply is the story: Guinea's Simandou ramping from 15–20 Mt in 2026 to 40–50 Mt in 2027, arriving into soft Chinese steel demand. The main upside argument on record runs the other way — Fitch's June 2026 revision lifted 2026 from $95 to $100 on freight costs and Middle East shipping disruption rather than on any demand recovery. Beyond 2027 the published views diverge sharply: Fitch carries $80 for 2028 and $75 mid-cycle, while PricePedia's futures-based projection sits at $98 for May 2028. We hold both rather than picking one.
22 records across 15 institutions, each recorded as at the date it was published.
| Institution | Horizon | USD/t | Basis | As of | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fitch Ratings | Mid-cycle | 75.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2026-06-11 | Long-run/mid-cycle assumption |
| Fitch Ratings | 2026 | 100.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2026-06-11 | Raised from $95/t on freight costs and Middle East shipping disruption |
| Vale | 2026 | 100.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2025-12-21 | Producer view; high end of the range |
| RBC Capital Markets | 2026 | 98.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2026-01-15 | |
| Project Blue | 2026 | 98.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2026-01-15 | $100-105/t in H1-2026 easing below $100/t in H2; midpoint used |
| World Bank | 2026 | 97.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2026-04-30 | Commodity Markets Outlook Apr-2026; -3.2% y/y |
| J.P. Morgan | 2026 | 95.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2025-12-21 | |
| BMI (Fitch Solutions) | 2026 | 95.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2025-12-21 | |
| SGX futures curve | Dec-2026 | 95.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2025-12-21 | Dec-2026 maturity settlement as at survey date |
| Trading Economics | End Q3-2026 | 94.03 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2026-08-07 | Econometric model projection, not an analyst view |
| Analyst consensus | 2026 | 94.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2025-12-21 | Range $85 (Citi) to $100 (Vale); may ease to ~$90/t in H2-2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | 2026 | 93.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2025-10-29 | Raised from $88/t; sees Q4-2026 at $88/t on China steel weakness |
| Australian Govt (DISR) | 2026 | 85.00 | FOB Australia | 2026-06-30 | REQ Jun-2026. FOB basis sits roughly $10-15/t below CFR China |
| Citi | 2026 | 85.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2025-12-21 | Low end of the analyst range |
| World Bank | 2027 | 95.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2026-04-30 | Commodity Markets Outlook Apr-2026; -2.1% y/y |
| Consensus Economics | Dec-2027 | 95.00 | CME 62% Fe CFR China | 2026-05-31 | Survey mean; forecast range $77-$108/t |
| Trading Economics | 12 months | 91.64 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2026-08-07 | Econometric model projection, not an analyst view |
| Fitch Ratings | 2027 | 90.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2026-06-11 | Raised from $85/t |
| Australian Govt (DISR) | 2027 | 82.00 | FOB Australia | 2026-06-30 | REQ Jun-2026; gradual decline as new supply (incl. Simandou) lands |
| PricePedia | May-2028 | 98.00 | CME 62% Fe CFR China | 2026-06-09 | ~11% below the May-2026 average of ~$110/t |
| Fitch Ratings | 2028 | 80.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2026-06-11 | |
| Fitch Ratings | 2029 | 75.00 | CFR China 62% Fe | 2026-06-11 |
Price history is World Bank Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), used under CC BY 4.0. Forecasts are third-party published views attributed to their authors and recorded as at the dates shown; several date from December 2025 and may since have been revised. Trading Economics figures are econometric model output, not an analyst view. This page is published for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to transact.
